Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $796,472$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{717,907.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(717,907.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $21,709$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,274.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,458$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $99,280$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,661.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(111,661.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,359$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,314$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,867$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,153.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,153.9\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $106$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 196.1)}}\) (asimptote \(138.8\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $339$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,087$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,768.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,768.1\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,200$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,366.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 196.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,366.4\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,175$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $364,190$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{745,197.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 261.8)}}\) (asimptote \(745,197.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,985$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,463.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 252.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,463.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,968$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $116,724$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,673.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105,673.7\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,694$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,216.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,216.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,081$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,682$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,431.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,431.6\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,987$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,193.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,193.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $336$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 107.4)}}\) (asimptote \(313.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $957$ on 2020-12-02