Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Zambia
  • Togo
  • Ethiopia
  • Sierra Leone

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $796,472$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{717,907.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 127.5)}}\) (asimptote \(717,907.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,709$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,274.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 132.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,274.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,458$ on 2020-12-02

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,280$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,661.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(111,661.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,359$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,314$ on 2020-12-02

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,867$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,153.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,153.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $106$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 196.1)}}\) (asimptote \(138.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-12-02

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,087$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,768.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 202.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,768.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,200$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,366.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 196.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,366.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,175$ on 2020-12-02

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $364,190$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{745,197.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 261.8)}}\) (asimptote \(745,197.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,985$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,463.9}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 252.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,463.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,968$ on 2020-12-02

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,724$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,673.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105,673.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,694$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,216.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,216.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,081$ on 2020-12-02

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,682$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,431.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,431.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-12-02

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,987$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,193.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,193.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $336$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 107.4)}}\) (asimptote \(313.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $957$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Zambia recovered 89%
Cabo Verde recovered 70%
Togo recovered 45%
Ethiopia recovered 27%
Sierra Leone recovered 2%

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,700$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,980.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,980.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $357$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(345.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $257$ on 2020-12-02

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,014$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,250.8}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 211.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,250.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 203.7)}}\) (asimptote \(98.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $406$ on 2020-12-02

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,984$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,732.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 138.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107,732.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,715$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,653.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,653.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,202$ on 2020-12-02

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,416$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,299.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 71.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,299.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 34.5)}}\) (asimptote \(71.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $504$ on 2020-12-02